Sélection du moment:
Veille 2.1
Résultats pour:
Yida Sun, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, Shupeng Zhu, Zhejiang University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, University of California Irvine, Advanced Power and Energy Program, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA, Daoping Wang, King’s College London, Department of Geography, King’s College London, London, UK, University of Cambridge, Centre for Climate Engagement, Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, Jianping Duan, Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface and Ecological Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, Hui Lu, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeli
Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and i